From 70% to 25% – What Collapsing Sales Conversions in the Midlands Tell Us About the Market
From 70% to 25%: what collapsing sales conversions in the Midlands tell us about the market
A recent conversation with a Midlands estate agency produced a stark claim. Where two thirds of listings used to progress to completion, now only around a quarter are getting over the line. In simple terms, the branch has shifted from selling most of its stock to struggling with three quarters failing to convert. Taken on its own this is anecdote, but it chimes with the measured slowdown in buyer enquiries and agreed sales recorded in recent RICS surveys, which continue to show a subdued backdrop and negative readings for demand and transactions across large parts of the country (RICS, 2025a).
What the percentage actually means
The agent was referencing the sales conversion rate. This is the proportion of live instructions that end in a completed sale within a given period. A move from 65–70% to roughly 25% implies a significant build-up of unsold stock and a longer pipeline. In practice, it can be a combination of fewer committed buyers, slower decision-making, more price renegotiations and a higher fall-through rate. It also suggests vendors have not fully adjusted expectations to prevailing affordability and lending conditions.
Why it is happening now
There are four forces that, together, help explain the conversion squeeze.
Affordability friction. Average UK prices are still showing modest year-on-year growth in the official series, which means nominal values have not corrected much even as mortgage costs have been higher. The ONS puts annual growth at around 2.8% for July 2025 on its latest release, a pace that looks weaker in real terms once inflation is considered (ONS, 2025a).
Buyer caution. RICS reports negative net balances for new buyer enquiries and agreed sales through late summer, signalling hesitancy and thinner depth of demand. This aligns with what front-line agents are feeling in the Midlands market (RICS, 2025b).
Stock and pricing. National portals show a market that is active but price sensitive, with achieved prices tracking below asking in many areas and growth uneven by region and city. This combination increases time on market and dampens conversion (Zoopla, 2025).
Throughput drift. HMRC’s monthly transaction data point to a choppy but broadly flat throughput compared with a year ago, with August’s seasonally adjusted completions slipping a little on July yet sitting a touch above the same month last year. This is consistent with a market that is working, but not effortlessly (HMRC, 2025).
What it means for agents, vendors and developers
For agents, a 25% conversion rate stresses cash flow, staff time and marketing budgets. Pipelines take longer to realise fees, while fall-throughs eat into productivity. The immediate levers are sharper pricing guidance at instruction, tighter buyer qualification and proactive renegotiation once survey and mortgage hurdles appear.
For vendors, the message is to price to the market, not to aspiration. In a thinner demand environment buyers will trade space, location and specification, but they will rarely stretch to meet stale guide prices. Clean title, complete information and early attention to surveyable defects all help protect against fall-through.
For developers and land investors, this is the interesting bit. Lower conversion on the retail side usually signals rising vendor motivation and a modest increase in distressed or time sensitive selling. That creates openings to secure homes in bulk, forward fund small blocks or structure conditional deals that derisk planning or build phases. It also nudges some landowners to consider promotion or hybrid agreements where an outright sale had been the preferred path in a hotter market. Monitoring fall-throughs and withdrawals at postcode or local authority level becomes a practical edge when targeting acquisitions and assembling pipelines.
Outlook
The Midlands is often a bellwether between north and south. Today’s weak conversion is not a market in free fall, it is a market that requires precision. Official price growth is low, buyer enquiries are patchy, and completions are ticking over rather than surging. For well-capitalised buyers and organised developers, the trade-off is attractive. Less competition at the point of offer, more opportunities to structure terms, and the chance to bank value through process rather than through price inflation. For agents and vendors, success will come from accurate pricing, complete due diligence, and faster decision-making. In short, conversions can be rebuilt, but only if expectations and execution are aligned with the market we actually have.
References
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) (2025) UK Monthly Property Transactions Commentary. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary--2
Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2025a) UK House Price Index: July 2025. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-july-2025
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) (2025a) UK Residential Market Survey: August 2025. Available at: https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/8_WEB_August_2025_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) (2025b) UK Residential Market Survey: September 2025. Available at: https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/Residential-Market-Survey-September-2025.pdf
Zoopla (2025) House Price Index: September 2025. Available at: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/