From 70% to 25% – What Collapsing Sales Conversions in the Midlands Tell Us About the Market

From 70% to 25%: what collapsing sales conversions in the Midlands tell us about the market

A recent conversation with a Midlands estate agency produced a stark claim. Where two thirds of listings used to progress to completion, now only around a quarter are getting over the line. In simple terms, the branch has shifted from selling most of its stock to struggling with three quarters failing to convert. Taken on its own this is anecdote, but it chimes with the measured slowdown in buyer enquiries and agreed sales recorded in recent RICS surveys, which continue to show a subdued backdrop and negative readings for demand and transactions across large parts of the country (RICS, 2025a).

What the percentage actually means

The agent was referencing the sales conversion rate. This is the proportion of live instructions that end in a completed sale within a given period. A move from 65–70% to roughly 25% implies a significant build-up of unsold stock and a longer pipeline. In practice, it can be a combination of fewer committed buyers, slower decision-making, more price renegotiations and a higher fall-through rate. It also suggests vendors have not fully adjusted expectations to prevailing affordability and lending conditions.

Why it is happening now

There are four forces that, together, help explain the conversion squeeze.

1. Affordability friction. Average UK prices are still showing modest year-on-year growth in the official series, which means nominal values have not corrected much even as mortgage costs have been higher. The ONS puts annual growth at around 2.8% for July 2025 on its latest release, a pace that looks weaker in real terms once inflation is considered (ONS, 2025a).

2. Buyer caution. RICS reports negative net balances for new buyer enquiries and agreed sales through late summer, signalling hesitancy and thinner depth of demand. This aligns with what front-line agents are feeling in the Midlands market (RICS, 2025b).

3. Stock and pricing. National portals show a market that is active but price sensitive, with achieved prices tracking below asking in many areas and growth uneven by region and city. This combination increases time on market and dampens conversion (Zoopla, 2025).

4. Throughput drift. HMRC’s monthly transaction data point to a choppy but broadly flat throughput compared with a year ago, with August’s seasonally adjusted completions slipping a little on July yet sitting a touch above the same month last year. This is consistent with a market that is working, but not effortlessly (HMRC, 2025).

What it means for agents, vendors and developers

For agents, a 25% conversion rate stresses cash flow, staff time and marketing budgets. Pipelines take longer to realise fees, while fall-throughs eat into productivity. The immediate levers are sharper pricing guidance at instruction, tighter buyer qualification and proactive renegotiation once survey and mortgage hurdles appear.

For vendors, the message is to price to the market, not to aspiration. In a thinner demand environment buyers will trade space, location and specification, but they will rarely stretch to meet stale guide prices. Clean title, complete information and early attention to surveyable defects all help protect against fall-through.

For developers and land investors, this is the interesting bit.  Lower conversion on the retail side usually signals rising vendor motivation and a modest increase in distressed or time sensitive selling. That creates openings to secure homes in bulk, forward fund small blocks or structure conditional deals that derisk planning or build phases. It also nudges some landowners to consider promotion or hybrid agreements where an outright sale had been the preferred path in a hotter market. Monitoring fall-throughs and withdrawals at postcode or local authority level becomes a practical edge when targeting acquisitions and assembling pipelines.

Outlook

The Midlands is often a bellwether between north and south. Today’s weak conversion is not a market in free fall, it is a market that requires precision. Official price growth is low, buyer enquiries are patchy, and completions are ticking over rather than surging. For well-capitalised buyers and organised developers, the trade-off is attractive. Less competition at the point of offer, more opportunities to structure terms, and the chance to bank value through process rather than through price inflation. For agents and vendors, success will come from accurate pricing, complete due diligence, and faster decision-making. In short, conversions can be rebuilt, but only if expectations and execution are aligned with the market we actually have.

References

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) (2025) UK Monthly Property Transactions Commentary. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary--2

Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2025a) UK House Price Index: July 2025. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-july-2025

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) (2025a) UK Residential Market Survey: August 2025. Available at: https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/8_WEB_August_2025_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) (2025b) UK Residential Market Survey: September 2025. Available at: https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/Residential-Market-Survey-September-2025.pdf

Zoopla (2025) House Price Index: September 2025. Available at: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/

Grey Belt Rush: Are Local Planning Officers Leaving Decisions to the Inspectorate?

By PlotWire editorial desk – Analysis & insight for the development community

Architects and planning consultants across England report a rising trend of local planning authorities deferring decisions on grey belt applications, allowing Inspectors to determine the outcome instead. While such claims remain largely anecdotal, recent data helps explain the reasoning behind this emerging pattern.

Grey belt by the numbers

According to a study by the Land, Planning and Development Federation (LPDF, 2025), planning applications for grey belt sites rose by more than 160 per cent in the first half of 2025 compared with the preceding six months. Between December 2024 and August 2025, the Planning Inspectorate allowed 57 per cent of all grey belt appeals and 80 per cent of major residential appeals (LPDF, 2025). These rates are significantly above the long-term national average, where only about 40 per cent of planning appeals succeed (Planning Inspectorate, 2025).

Rising reliance on appeal

Across England, the Planning Inspectorate determined 18,346 appeals in the year to March 2025, averaging roughly 1,500 decisions per month (Planning Inspectorate, 2025). Although the dataset does not isolate grey belt cases, consultants view the overall increase as evidence that stretched officers and politically sensitive committees are leaning on Inspectors to resolve contentious applications.

Government issues fresh guidance

On 7 March 2025, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC, 2025) released updated guidance and £9.31 million in funding to 133 local authorities to help evaluate potential grey belt sites. The guidance emphasises that grey belt identification does not guarantee land release for development and that proposals must comply with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (Planning Portal, 2025).

This clarifies why some councils may be reluctant to grant permissions prematurely. By allowing appeals to run their course, local authorities avoid the risk of approving schemes that could later conflict with evolving national policy.

Policy uncertainty continues

The House of Lords Built Environment Committee (2025) has cautioned that the grey belt reforms may have “only a marginal impact at best” on housing delivery and risk creating further uncertainty. Nonetheless, high appeal success rates indicate that Inspectors are applying policy more flexibly than local committees, and developers see opportunity in that gap.

What to watch next

Further technical notes are expected later in 2025 on transport connectivity, biodiversity metrics, and site viability (DLUHC, 2025). Until then:

• Developers should submit comprehensive evidence on sustainability, design quality and local housing need to strengthen appeal cases.

• Local authorities might review decision-making thresholds to reduce non-determination appeals.

• Investors should monitor appeal outcomes as early signals of market sentiment and shifting land values.

A cautious conclusion

The statistics suggest that the grey belt initiative has fuelled a surge in planning activity and that many contested cases are now decided at appeal. Whether forthcoming guidance will temper this trend remains uncertain, but the policy has already reshaped strategic land dynamics across England.

PlotWire will continue to track these developments and publish quarterly data reviews. This article is provided for general information only and does not constitute legal or planning advice.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

References

Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) (2025) Grey Belt Guidance and Local Authority Funding, 7 March 2025. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/funding-to-support-local-authorities-with-the-costs-of-local-plan-delivery-and-green-belt-reviews-successful-local-authorities (Accessed: 7 October 2025).

House of Lords Built Environment Committee (2025) ‘Grey Belt policy having only a marginal impact at best’, 5 February 2025. Available at: https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/518/built-environment-committee/news/205110/grey-belt-policy-having-only-a-marginal-impact-at-best/ (Accessed: 7 October 2025).

Land, Planning and Development Federation (LPDF) (2025) Grey Belt Applications and Appeal Outcomes, 2024–25 Survey Report. London: LPDF.

Planning Inspectorate (2025) Appeal Decisions Statistics, England, April 2024 – March 2025. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/planning-inspectorate-statistical-release-24-april-2025 (Accessed: 7 October 2025).

Planning Portal (2025) ‘New guidance on grey belt: Key updates for local authorities’, 7 March 2025. Available at: https://www.planningportal.co.uk/services/weekly-planning-news/planning-news-7-march-2025 (Accessed: 7 October 2025).